The photo is of Professor David (Danny) Blanchflower, not to be confused with that great captain of Tottenham Hotspur Football Club; one of the very few economists to anticipate the severity of the credit crunch, and the keynote speaker at the New Model Adviser Conference 14-15th January 2010.

Danny Blanchflower is Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College in the US but is perhaps best known in the UK for his membership of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC). He left the MPC in June of last year after a period of consistently calling for interest rate cuts in defiance of his peers. 

I have produced a précis from notes that I took of Professor Blanchflower’s speech, The UK economy: Where does it go from here? combined with notes which various Citywire journalists took of that speech and which have been published on the Citywire website (www.citywire.co.uk).

I feel that Professor Blanchflower delivered a vitally important message for all of our clients and for anyone else who is investing for their future. He believes that consumers’ optimism has been racing away with them and that we are all in for a nasty shock as we experience a ‘double dip’ recession. He believes that the rise in house prices is not only unsustainable but that we will see large falls in property prices because, among other things, wages are frozen or falling. He also has important views about interest rates and inflation and the need for further Government ‘quantative easing’.

You can obtain a copy of the précis which I have produced in the form of a Guide: A Sobering Economic Outlook 2010 via the front page of our website at www.arch-fp.co.uk. You can also hear just a few minutes of an interview he gave at the Conference following his presentation so that you can form your own opinion of the man.

This particular New Model Adviser Conference, held at the Lancaster Hotel, London, was a special one for us as Arch Financial Planning was named New Model Adviser of the Year 2010 for the South East Region.

We have also just heard that Arch Financial Planning has been shortlisted for the third year running for the Professional Adviser Baillie Gifford Financial Education Award. The winner will be announced at the Professional Adviser Awards 2010 at the London Hilton, Park Lane on Thursday 21 January.

Please note that this information does not constitute personal advice and should not be treated as a substitute for specific advice based on your circumstances. If you are in any doubt as to whether your investment portfolio is making the best use of the available assets, then you should discuss the matter with a suitably qualified independent financial adviser such as ourselves. An investment into any of the assets mentioned in our Guide: Economic Outlook 2010 is intended as a long-term investment. It is important that you are aware that the value of units in a collective investment scheme, as well as any income which they generate, can fall as well as rise. Where past performance is mentioned please note that the past is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

If you would like to discus a new investment or review your existing investments please ask your usual Arch adviser, telephone 01483 204600 or email enquiries@arch-fp.co.uk.